Perfect Labor Storm 2.0

No Kidding Around - High Demand Jobs Do Exist

The first thing that comes to mind when you hear unemployment rates like 2.6%, 2.8%, and 3.8% must be memories of the good-old-days - pre-2007 recession. Well think again.

While we continue to hear a lot of depressing stories these days about the loss of jobs and slow job creation, demand for executive and management level talent remains high. According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for chief executives, including chief financial officers, is 2.6 percent, followed by HR managers at 2.8 percent, accountants and auditors at 3.5 percent, and financial analysts at 3.8 percent. In fact, the unemployment rate for adults 25 years and over with a bachelor’s degree and higher remains constant at 4.4%, below the baseline of full employment.

That’s not to say we don’t have a problem. Actually we have a colossal crisis. Other segments of the population are undeniably in trouble.  For adults over 25 with less than a high school education, the unemployment rate is 14.3; with only a high school diploma, the rate is 10% with not much light at the end of the tunnel. For teenagers between 16 and 19 years old, the rate nears 25%.

But while net new job growth will undoubtedly remain slow for quite some time, the job creation engine has not stopped – new job creation just gets lost in all the bad news.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) still projects that the U.S. will add 15.3 million new jobs between 2008 and 2018.  What’s more, a whopping 15 out of 30 jobs with the most openings and vacancies will pay wages that are above the national median wage for all workers in the United States.

Here's a list of 10 in-demand careers in arm’s length of many unemployed or underemployed workers that will offer plenty of growth and pay well by 2018. That doesn’t mean the jobs will be offered in return for completing a few years of schooling or just completing an application. The bar has been raised: what qualified an individual to fill these positions just a few years might not meet the minimum requirements today. But with a little motivation, a positive attitude, and the right skills, there are employers ready to hire, especially in these areas.

Carpenters

Population growth, the retirement of older carpenters and the demand for new energy-efficient buildings will stimulate a great need for carpenters in the future. But those with the most training and ability to do more than just the simple tasks will have the steadiest workload. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 165,400

Computer Software Engineer, Applications

Computer software engineers will be in high demand as computer networking among businesses continues to grow. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 175,100

Management Analysts

Management Analysts, sometimes called "management consultants" are specialized masterminds who help organizations rearrange corporate structure or improve operations to increase efficiency and profits. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 178,300

Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

As highly skilled and communicatively tactful executive secretaries and administrative assistants are promoted or move on to even more professional jobs, there will be a significant demand for those who can fill their roles. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 204,400

Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks

Because many of the current bookkeepers, accountants and auditing clerks are likely to retire or be promoted to higher levels of financial management, the amount of vacancies in this job in the next few years will be immense. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 212,400

Truck Drivers (Heavy and Tractor-Trailer)

Truck drivers who drive the big rigs will be in high demand to ship everyday products to businesses and keep a stocked inventory. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 232,900

Elementary School Teachers (Non-Special Education)

If you enjoy science, math, or foreign languages and think you have a knack for teaching kids, you are likely to find good opportunities upon your certification. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 244,200

Postsecondary Teachers

Postsecondary education enrollment is expected to grow exponentially. Many of the professors hired in the 1960s and 1970s that taught baby-boomers are expected to retire soon, leaving those with Ph.Ds a great opportunity for employment.  Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 256,900

Accountants and Auditors

Plenty of accountants and auditors will be needed to fill positions in new businesses, keep up with ever changing financial laws and protecting an organization's shareholders through increased transparency in financial reporting. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 279,400

Registered Nurses

With nearly twice as many projected job vacancies in the next seven years as accountants, registered nurses will be in very high demand as the immense baby boomer population ages and as experienced nurses retire. Projected New Job Openings by 2018: 581,500

Because these middle-class jobs will be in such high demand, they will be lucrative and secure for years to come. You may have to go back to school and get a certification once you've decided on a job that you're interested in, but it may be worth it if these projections are correct.

Source of in-demand job info: Investinganswers.com

Absent Employees Drain Productivity and Profits

It’s only logical that companies are beginning to pay more attention to costs of an absent employee.

According to a survey by Mercer, "The Total Financial Impact of Employee Absences," the total cost of absence can equal as much as 36% of payroll when combined with the cost of absence related health care coverage. Of that figure, 9% accounts for unplanned absences. Planned absences, like vacations and holidays, average 26.6%. For a midsize business, this unplanned absence can drain millions of dollars per year from the bottom.

Listen to Bill Shapiro discuss how to lower the cost of absenteeism on Workforce Trends Blog Talk Radio.

With an aging workforce, current costs associated with absenteeism may only be the tip of the iceberg.

These are startling numbers and a call to action for all organizations to get a better handle on this often unchecked cost. And with the youngest Baby Boomers entering their 50s, the number of disability claims is sure to climb with their durations lasting longer.

Approximately 80% of older adults have at least one chronic condition, and more than 50% have at least two chronic conditions. Diabetes, the leading cause of heart disease, stroke, blindness in adults, and end-stage renal disease, already affects 21 million people in the United States. While that’s approximately 8% of the total population, over 20% of people in the U.S. over 60 are diabetic. Poorly controlled diabetes and other chronic conditions in an aging workplace have significant economic impact, not the least of which is having absent workers on your payroll.

The good news is that if properly managed, according to Bill Shapiro, president of Workplace Medical Corporation. “A decrease of only 10% in employee absence costs could produce a 1-2% payroll saving,” he revealed during a Workforce Trends Blog Talk Radio interview. That’s a big chunk of change.

Two-thirds of U.S. workers who call in sick at the last minute do so for reasons other than physical illness, according to the findings of the 17th annual CCH Unscheduled Absence Survey. It’s these unscheduled absences that are driving employers crazy. The nation’s largest employers estimate that unscheduled absenteeism costs their businesses more than $760,000 per year in direct payroll costs, and even more when lower productivity, lost revenue and the effects of poor morale are considered.

To determine the real cost of absenteeism, employers must consider both the direct and indirect costs incurred when an employee is absent. While direct costs of absenteeism can be more easily calculated, indirect costs often exceed the direct costs.

Direct costs are the benefits paid to the employee to provide income during an absence.  These include sick, holiday and vacation pay as well as a disability benefit when available. They also include the wage cost of the replacement, overtime payment for present employees, and creep in the short-term and long-term disability costs. Employers already do a pretty good job of tracking these costs.

What many employers fail to do is consider the indirect costs. These costs are typically ignored or poorly tracked but account for a considerable and controllable loss dropped to the bottom line.  Indirect costs include the lost productivity due to extra workload, time lost to train and support replacement workers, and lower morale.  Absentee workers add administrative costs: staff time required to secure replacement and to manage the reporting.

Even having an ample supply of replacement workers slows but does not stop the "bleeding."  The Mercer study reports that replacement workers are less efficient. Unplanned absences like casual sick days result in the highest per-day productivity loss, 21% versus just 15% for planned absences like vacation days. Replacement workers were also found to be: 

• 71% as efficient during unplanned incidental absences
• 79% as efficient during planned absences
• 80% as efficient during extended absences

“The biggest mistake that companies make,” according to Shapiro, “is they lack proper policies and procedures….and even when they do, they do not enforce them consistently.”  Supervisors often have to make their own rules about absences, which can vary depending on the supervisor’s philosophy, their engagement with employees, availability of replacement workers, busyness of production, and so on. Effective absenteeism management requires consistency. The disposition of any employee shouldn’t lie in the personal philosophy of a supervisor or HR manager.

Even when policies are in place, human resources and operations don’t always work hand-in-hand. Absenteeism is often seen as an HR problem. That might be true from an administrative perspective but missing workers ultimately affect production and finance even more. Employees often do not know whom to call. Even when they do know, the reporting mechanism doesn’t always support productivity. If the employee leaves a message with HR at 6 AM, what happens when HR staff doesn’t arrive until 8 AM? That’s a breach in the people supply chain since the supervisor’s shift started at 7 AM. Vice verse, if the employee notifies the supervisor, how and when is it reported back to HR? Who is responsible to enforce the policy, especially if the absence is unscheduled? 

Managing absenteeism isn’t immune to Murphy’s Law either. Despite the best controls, a few employees will still abuse the system if they are given the opportunity. Screening out high-risk candidates before they become chronically absent employees is the best solution. Multiple studies confirm that pre-employment tests that assess employee attitude toward dependability and conscientiousness can reduce culpable absenteeism as much as 50%.

When it comes to managing absences, prevention, policies, and procedures are the best medicine. 

Absenteeism Doctor Offers Rx for Unplanned Lost Work Days

The “Absenteeism Doctor,” Bill Shapiro, is making a house call this week on Workforce Trends.  Bill is the owner of Workplace Medical Corporation.

Absenteeism Management is one of the biggest challenges facing HR executives. Few companies know the true cost of absenteeism. It is estimated that on average, companies spend 10% - 15% of payroll on lost time and 50% - 75% of lost time are short duration absences.  And it’s about to get much worse.  With populations aging quickly in both the U.S. and Canada, “innocent” absences – those missed work days due to acute illnesses as well as chronic conditions – are on the rise. That’s not even considering the one-third of employees who play “hooky” every now and then.

Join me on June 9 at 11 AM EDT when I welcome my guest absenteeism management expert Bill Shapiro who will share how he helps companies manage absenteeism and, and as a result, achieve significant savings.

U.S. Productivity Gains Come at a Price

Thanks to the convergence of a recovering economy and a lean workforce, U.S. productivity gains in the fourth quarter of 2009 reached 6.9%. For the year, the rate was 3.8% — the second-highest level in a decade. While that is certainly welcome news, you have to wonder if employers are wearing their employees out.

In a report published in the January Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 38% of more than 29,000 employees said they had experienced “low levels of energy, poor sleep, or a feeling of fatigue” during the past two weeks, a problem that carries billions of dollars in costs from lost productivity.

The study looked at the effects of fatigue on health-related lost productive time: not just absenteeism but also "presenteeism," or days the employee was at work but performing at less than full capacity because of health reasons. Nine percent of workers with fatigue reported lost productive work time. Fatigue reduced work performance mainly by interfering with concentration and increasing the time needed to accomplish tasks.

The rate of lost productivity for all health-related reasons was also much higher for workers with fatigue: 66%, compared with 26% for workers without fatigue. Total lost productive time averaged 5.6 hours per week for workers with fatigue, compared to 3.3 hours for their counterparts without fatigue.

For U.S. employers, fatigue carried overall estimated costs of more than $136 billion per year in health-related lost productivity — $101 billion more than for workers without fatigue. Eighty-four percent of the costs were related to reduced performance while at work, rather than absences.

With adjustment for other factors, fatigue was more common in women than men, in workers less than 50 years old, and in white workers compared with African-Americans. Workers with “high-control” jobs — relatively well-paid jobs with decision-making responsibility — also reported higher rates of fatigue.

Also posted on my blog Workforce Trends at Bizmore.com

U.S. Productivity Gains Come at a Price

Thanks to the convergence of a recovering economy and a lean workforce, U.S. productivity gains in the fourth quarter of 2009 reached 6.9%. For the year, the rate was 3.8% — the second-highest level in a decade. While that is certainly welcome news, you have to wonder if employers are wearing their employees out.

In a report published in the January Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 38% of more than 29,000 employees said they had experienced “low levels of energy, poor sleep, or a feeling of fatigue” during the past two weeks, a problem that carries billions of dollars in costs from lost productivity.

The study looked at the effects of fatigue on health-related lost productive time: not just absenteeism but also "presenteeism," or days the employee was at work but performing at less than full capacity because of health reasons. Nine percent of workers with fatigue reported lost productive work time. Fatigue reduced work performance mainly by interfering with concentration and increasing the time needed to accomplish tasks.

The rate of lost productivity for all health-related reasons was also much higher for workers with fatigue: 66%, compared with 26% for workers without fatigue. Total lost productive time averaged 5.6 hours per week for workers with fatigue, compared to 3.3 hours for their counterparts without fatigue.

For U.S. employers, fatigue carried overall estimated costs of more than $136 billion per year in health-related lost productivity — $101 billion more than for workers without fatigue. Eighty-four percent of the costs were related to reduced performance while at work, rather than absences.

With adjustment for other factors, fatigue was more common in women than men, in workers less than 50 years old, and in white workers compared with African-Americans. Workers with “high-control” jobs — relatively well-paid jobs with decision-making responsibility — also reported higher rates of fatigue.

Source: Workforce Trends, Monday Mar 15, 2010

H1N1 Will Expose Crisis of Finding Skilled Workers

On Friday,the Labor Department announced other uptick in unemployment. The announcement coincided with the arrival in my inbox of alerts of potentially significant skilled worker shortages.  How can that be? With over 15 million people unemployed and another nearly 10 million people under-employed (not counting those people who just stopped looking) how can we be talking labor shortages? 

The answer is really quite simple.  In the late 1990s, many people (including yours truly) fell prey to the theory that we could continue to create jobs at a rate greater than our ability to find people to fill them.  For many reasons including a combination of the Great Recession and technology that didn't happen nor is it likely to.  HOWEVER,  that doesn't alleviate a shortage of labor. 

By the early years of this decade, most of us realized that the gap wasn't one of quantity but quality. Even today with approximately 7 people available to fill every open job, many employers are unable to find qualified employees.

For example, as the outbreak of H1N1 spreads, U.S. laboratories will see a big surge in their testing workload, according to the American Society for Clinical Pathology. A large spike in swine flu screenings could clog a lab system already struggling with a shortage of workers, the ASCP said. Citing federal statistics, the ASCP said that 138,000 new laboratory professionals will be needed nationwide by 2012, but fewer than 50,000 will be trained. California and other Far West states are weathering a 53 percent shortage of medical technologists in hospitals, commercial labs and other diagnostic facilities; followed by 46 percent in Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas, and 42 percent in the Northeast.

At just about the same time, I read how reverse immigration was a trend the U.S. was beginning to experience. While that should bring relief to many people, it may not bode well for the U.S. future. While the U.S. was losing its global dominance as the land of opportunity and the fortunes and futures of China and India improved, the U.S. has started to lose many of its best and brightest workers.  While only constituting 12% of the U.S. population, immigrants have started 52% of Silicon Valley's technology companies and contributed to more than 25% of our global patents. They make up 24% of the U.S. science and engineering workforce holding bachelor's degrees and 47% of science and engineering workers who have PhDs. Immigrants have co-founded firms such as Google, Intel, eBay, and Yahoo!. While we may not need all these workers right now, we will need skilled, talented, and highly educated workers to help us recover.

The third example, but not definitely not the last of shortages to come, had to do with the likelihood that we will run out of hospital beds should H1N1 affect 35 percent of the population. (While that might seem almost surrealistic, that number is not far-flung should efforts to prevent a pandemic outbreak fail.) What does hospital beds have to do with labor?  The beds are just a symptom.  The entire health care system is already strained. When an H1N1 outbreak occurs, health care labor shortages will only be exaggerated.  Shortages already exist for skilled workers in the Emergency Rooms and Critical Care Units. Vacancies exist almost universally in the U.S. for primary care providers. Openings exist in nearly every hospital and medical practice for nurses, assistants, and technicians.  And health care providers aren't immune to the flu either. What happens when they get sick or call off to take care of family?

On top of all that during the first half of 2009, local health departments cut about 8,000 staff positions. In 2008, an estimated 7,000 public health jobs were eliminated. From 2005 to 2009, federal public health preparedness funding was slashed by 25%.

The Perfect Labor Storm is far from over.  Despite high unemployment, serious gaps exist in our ability to fill all the job positions available, many critical to the health and well-being of our economy and citizens.

Telework: An ounce of prevention?

Should the swine flu virus spread and employees heed the advice of public health experts and stay home, employers could expect to see absenteeism jump to 50% or more.  Mind you that not all these employees will be sick but fear and childcare/eldercare issues will force many employees to be missing in action. 

One solution for many organizations is telework.  Telework is a tool for emergency planning at all levels - from snowstorms that close offices in a region for a day or two, to pandemic influenza that may affect operations over the course of weeks or even months.

The Life meets Work Blog today posted an excellent story about telework.

 Flu outbreaks don’t have to be disabling if companies are set up to telework. The federal government has long incorporated teleworking in its business continuity plans:

“By helping support a distributed workforce, telework is a tool for emergency planning at all levels - from snowstorms that close offices in a region for a day or two, to pandemic influenza that may affect operations over the course of weeks or even months.” (Source: telework.gov)

Even in the face of a global flu pandemic, business CAN continue if your employees are equipped to log-in remotely.  To be successful, your company should have a telework program with as many staffers as possible equipped to work from home. The best way to test your system is to use it as a routine course of business, to ensure all tools are operational.

You can get more tips to prepare your business for a flu pandemic from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management at telework.gov. 

1 in 5 workers battling anxiety and fear; presenteeism on the rise

One in five U.S. workers surveyed by staffing agency Adecco USA say the recession is affecting their emotional health as they battle anxiety and fear over the potential loss of their jobs.

Stressed out employees, managers, and even owners seem to spend the better part of each day figuring out ways to avoid work, complaining about the work they have, or redoing work. These behaviors have recently been reported in the Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine as a workplace condition called presenteeism showing up for work but not being very productive. It's like absenteeism ... but worse. With presenteeism, employees are still showing up and still receiving a full paycheck. But they likely are disrupting and demoralizing the other workers and not doing the jobs they are being paid to do.

The cost of this presenteeism in the U.S. alone is in the hundreds of billions of dollars and results in over 2.5 billion lost workdays per year.

How much does absenteeism cost your business?

It's no secret that missing workers cost companies millions of dollars in lost revenue each year. But exactly how much does absenteeism cost your business?

According to a new survey by Mercer, "The Total Financial Impact of Employee Absences," the total cost of absence can equal as much as 36% of payroll (compared to 15.4% for health care coverage). Of that figure, 9% accounts for unplanned absences. Planned absences, like vacations and holidays, average 26.6%. For a midsize business, this unplanned absence can account for as much as $4.5 million dollars per year.

This new survey suggests that absences cost employers more than half the cost of health care, a startling number and a call to action for all organizations to get a better handle on this often unchecked cost.

Unplanned absences like casual sick days result in the highest per-day productivity loss, 21% versus just 15% for planned absences like vacation days. On average, employees have 5.3 unplanned absence days per year.

Employers must consider both the direct and indirect costs incurred when an employee is absent. Direct costs are the most obvious and those usually tracked by employers.  Direct costs are the benefits paid to the employee to provide income during an absence.  These include sick, holiday and vacation pay as well as a disability benefit when available.

The real impact to the organizations comes in the form of indirect cost.  These costs are typically ignored or poorly tracked but account for a considerable loss dropped to the bottom line.  Indirect costs are represented by:

• The employee's absence affects coworkers and slows down a project's completion.
• The absent employee's work is "covered" by coworkers, a temporary worker, "floaters," or the employee's supervisor.
• An ample supply of replacement workers slows but does not stop the "bleeding." 

Replacement workers are less efficient: 

• 71% as efficient during unplanned incidental absences
• 79% as efficient during planned absences
• 80% as efficient during extended absences
• The work output of 4 to 8 co-workers was reduced by 19%

Both types of impacts significantly add indirect costs. 

What can you do to manage the costs of absenteeism?

1. Know your costs.
2. Use the ratios of total costs to direct costs to estimate your organization's total costs.
3. Educate your staff and managers on:
       a. What the real costs of absences are.
       b. What other employers are doing (or not doing) to better track and manage absences.